I have been listening to the data in the UK government daily Covid briefings and trying to get an understanding for the numbers that are given out. The number of positive cases is a difficult statistic to follow across the last 4 months because the amount of testing has increased so the number of cases found would have incraesed with it. Sadly the most reliable data has been the 7 day average of the daily deaths. I was wondering if the fall in numbers of deaths was expinential so I took the natural logarithm of that figure once a week. I got most of the numbers from a graph on this site https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ The data gives a straight line which means a clear exponential decay. I hope that the recent falls in hospital admissions will mean that there will be an abrupt downward change in my graph. Knowing that the relationship is exponential is helping me to develop a simple mathematical model.
