Thursday, 18 June 2020

More calculations with my Covid data model

I found more tests that help me to work on my value for T in the equation I came up with for the Covid data. T is the time it takes for one person to pass on the virus. Professor Neil Ferguson said the cases were doubling every 3 - 4 days before lockdown. We know that the R rate was roughly 3 at that point. Here's how you do the doubling analysis.
 Putting in t=3 days fpr doubling gives a value for T of 8.6 days. When t=4 days, T = 11.5 days. Both values would sit inside the 14 day quarantine. There was more data about regional R values in the Daily Mirror this week. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-r-close-tipping-point-22186919 It gave ranges of R values with a mean along with the time for cases to halve. Here's the maths for halving.
I put in the mean values with the halving times and got values for T of between 3.5 days and 5.2 days - shorter times than the doubling analysis. I was also interested to note that when R=1 there is a halving time. This must be rounded because when R=1 the numbers remain the same. I estimate they rounded from R=0.97