Last week's New Scientist magazine had an update on the Covid mutations and on page 11 gave some data that can help me to complete the mathematical model I developed last June. My equationn below calculates the number of new cases from the number of old cases No based on 2 factors
- The R number
- The time that has elasped
- A mysterious factor T I had to put in which is the time it takes from a person getting the virus to them having spread it to the next group.
I had always thought it was around 7 days but New Scientist said that if there were 10000 caes with an R number of 1.1, then a month later there would be 16000 cases. I work in days, so I have used 30 days for a month and I now get T=6.4 days.
