Amending my Covid model

 

The R number is definitely falling in the UK. Using my model, I think it might have fallen to 0.7 this week. Last week I was wondering how to incorporate this fall into my model. I used data I had from earlier in the month and modelled the far in R as linear. I think this might be unrealistic. It puts R to zero after 150 days but has it down to 1 case in the entire UK in about 40 days. I will have to think about how to refine it.