Makling Covid predictions

 

Having calculated the R number as 0,85, I put my numbers into my model. The last week in January, the ONS said the prevalence of Covid in England was 1 in 65. Last June was the start of our coming out of lockdown and in June 2020 the rate was roughly 1 in 1000. My calculation above shows that unless the R number falls, we'll be waiting a long time until 1 in 1000 this year.