Covid graph update and the constant ratio property

This week the 7-day rolling average for Covid deaths reported in the UK is 87. I have added it to the graph. The gradient is the same as last week so the trend continues and the R-squared value is slightly higher so the trend is more certain.

Another way of assessing exponential decay is to look for a constant ratio property. This is when you do the current data point divided by the previous data point. The answer should be the same all the way down. Here's what I got:

The numbers have fluctuated a bit but the current mean ratio is 0.823. If the trend continues the prediction is that the 7-day rolling mean should be 72 this time next week.