Another look at the Covid data

 

I have been following the Office for National Statistics weekly survey data for a year now. Last year I watched the number of deaths come down as a straight line on a log graph. Now I've chosen to take the natural logarithm of the ONS estimated number of cases in England each week. The graph above shows the data for the last 5 weeks. My model gives the gradient as being (R-1)/6.4 where 6.4 is the number of days between you catching Covid and the person you give it to catching Covid. I worked out that number in January from data in the New Scientist magazine. R is the famous R-number or reproduction rate. The red section of the line for the first half of June has gradient roughly 0.35/21 and therefore gives R=1.1. For the last two weeks, gradient is roughly 1/14 and gives R=1.46.