Sunday 19 December 2021

Using the Covid model to work out the R number

 There's not been a lot of use for the Covid model I developed last year because numbers have been steady. R has basically been 1. Things have changed with Omicron. They say numbers are doubling every two days. Applied to my original model, that gives R=3.2.

The number 6.4 in my model is the number of days it takes between one person contracting it and passing it on to the point where the next person can pass it on too. The figure is based on data I found in New Scientist this time last year so it may not apply to Omicron. They say R is between 3 and 5 at the moment. Here's what R=5 means. That's doubling every 14 hours if the 6.4 days still applies.